Ohio State (18-12, 9-8) vs. Michigan State (24-6, 12-5)

Date: Sunday, March 9
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Place: Value City Arena – capacity 19,049
TV: Big Ten Network with the “Voice of the Green Bay Packers” Wayne Larivee and Greg Kelser.
Radio: WBNS-AM 1460 and WBNS-FM 97.1 in Columbus and 57 stations across Buckeyeland with Paul Keels and Ron Stokes.
Series History: Ohio State has an all-time record of 47-55 vs. Michigan State, but the Buckeyes are 31-20 vs. the Spartans in games played in Columbus.
Last Meeting : Jan. 15, 2008. Michigan State won 66-60 in East Lansing. Michigan State led by as many as 21 points in the first half, but the Buckeyes trimmed the Spartans’ advantage down to three early in the second half. Unfortunately, Ohio State could not get any closer. Jamar Butler led the Buckeyes with 21 points.

Again, another must-win for Ohio State if they want to go to the NCAA tournament, and it will also add another quality win to their resume. The only problem is that the Buckeyes will face the Spartans in the first round of the Big Ten tournament next weekend in Indianapolis, too.

Which Michigan State team will show up in Columbus on Sunday? That’s of course if they even make it through the snowstorm.

Will it be the one that thrashed Indiana 104-73 just six days ago, or the one that struggled to defeat Illinois 59-51, Wednesday night?

Michigan State is 3-5 in Big Ten road games this season and just 6-18 in the past three seasons.

Turnovers have plagued Michigan State most of the year, but the Spartans have cut down on the miscues late in the season. The Spartans had only nine their win over Indiana on March 2, 10 against Illinois, and 37 in their last four games.

Raymar Morgan, a 6-foot-7 sophomore forward from Canton McKinley, leads the Spartans in scoring, averaging 14.8 points per game. Second on the team in scoring is 6-foot senior point guard Drew Neitzel, who also leads Michigan State in assists (4.2 apg), and is the team’s best three-point shooter (39.7%).

The Spartans’ top rebounder is 6-foot-10 junior forward Goran Suton, who averages 8.8 points and 8.2 boards per game. Rounding out the starting five is 6-foot-10 senior center Drew Naymick (4.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg), and 6-foot-4 freshman guard Durrell Summers (5.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg).

Once again, Ohio State is going to have to play hard for 40 minutes from start to finish, plus the Buckeyes must attack the basket like they did against Purdue. Defensively, OSU needs to find the shooter on the perimeter and defend it well.

This is a game Ohio State can and should win, since the Buckeyes are playing at home. The question is, can they do it twice in a week’s span? They will have to if they plan on advancing to the NCAAs.

Prediction: Ohio State 69, Michigan State 64

Tags: Men's Basketball by Matt Barker, Publisher & Editor of BuckeyeBanter.com
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Last spring it was reported that Greg Oden left Ohio State in good academic standing.
So who left ineligible, Mike Conley Jr. or Daequan Cook?

In May of 2007, I reported that it was possible that the Ohio State men’s basketball team could lose one full-ride scholarship due to it’s low Academic Progress Rate (APR). Now, Ingrid Rivera of The Lantern is reporting that the NCAA-imposed sanction is official. For now.

In Rivera’s article, John Bruno, faculty athletics representative said that the university is petitioning to overturn the decision. He also said OSU has a two-year time frame to petition the NCAA to keep the scholarship. Bruno did not mention when the reduced scholarship penalty would go into effect.

We’re optimistic that we won’t lose that scholarship because we have a strong petition but that decision is in the hands of the NCAA,” Bruno said.

One of the three “one-and-done” players from last year’s team, Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr., or Daequan Cook left the Columbus campus during Spring Quarter of 2007 to enter the NBA draft, but left academically ineligible.

Last May, from information I obtained with the help of Bob Baptist of the Columbus Dispatch, this is what I learned then:

a) Oden petitioned and was granted a withdrawal from the University during the week of May 14-18.

b) Oden left The Ohio State University in good academic standing.

c) His withdrawal from spring quarter classes will not help the Ohio State men’s basketball APR score the next time that these results are tabulated, but his early departure won’t hurt, either.

“My understanding is that because he withdrew, it triggers back to his eligibility coming out of winter quarter,” Bruno said.

“He was making very good progress at the end of winter quarter, and, therefore, according to NCAA parameters, he would professionalize at a time when he was in good academic standing.”

If it’s not Oden, then it’s either Conley or Cook.

Once these players leave the university, Ohio State head coach Thad Matta shouldn’t be penalized because of it. You can only monitor these student-athletes when they are on campus.

What I wrote last May:

If you took a stroll down High Street along the campus of The Ohio State University on a warm, muggy late spring afternoon, like today for instance, and asked 10 different people what “APR” meant, you’d probably hear the same answers.

Most would probably think you are inquiring about a credit card or student loan, with their definition of “APR” being an interest rate.

After educating myself all afternoon, I may have a handle on this “APR” that had Ohio State basketball fans worried yesterday.

In 2004, the NCAA developed an Academic Progress Rate (APR) standard that examines academic success on a more real-time basis. One point is awarded each term to each scholarship student-athlete who meets academic-eligibility standards and an additional point is awarded if they remain with the institution.

A team’s APR is the total points earned by the team at a given time divided by the total points possible. A cutoff score of 925 corresponds to an anticipated graduation-rate of about 50%.

Teams that fall below the cutoff score on a statistically-significant basis are subject to contemporaneous penalties consisting of a loss of scholarships in that sport. These penalties start after two years of data are collected and normally take effect the following academic year.

Teams that habitually fail to meet the cutoff can be subject to historical penalties. Historical penalties may include additional scholarship reductions, recruiting restrictions, lack of access to postseason competition, and restricted membership.

The NCAA Division I 2005 – 2006 Academic Progress Rate as reported on April 30, 2007, is based on information submitted by member institutions for the 2003-04, 2004-05, and 2005-06 academic years.

The Ohio State men’s basketball team scored a multi-year APR of 902, but was not subjected to contemporaneous penalties due to the squad-size adjustment. The adjusted total with “upper confidence boundary” was 930.

The “upper confidence boundary” of a team’s APR must be below 925 for that team to be subject to contemporaneous penalties. Squad-size adjustments will be eliminated when the fourth year of APR data is collected, provided the team’s multi-year cohort includes 30 or more student-athletes. The adjustment helps ensure that low-performing teams are accurately identified given the smaller than intended data set.

This marks the third year of the APR (2003-04, 2004-05, and 2005-06) and the final year of using an upper confidence boundary. When the APR was initially instituted, the upper confidence boundary was established for use in the determination of any institutional penalties until four years of data was available. A margin of error in statistics known as a confidence boundary is a short-term tool used until a larger sample becomes available.

Additionally, just because a team falls below the contemporaneous penalty cut score of 925 does not mean they will lose scholarships. A team below the 925 score would only lose scholarships if the team had a student-athlete depart the institution with eligibility remaining and the student-athlete did not achieve the appropriate academic eligibility requirements.

Got it? Have you been able to follow so far? Confusing, isn’t it?

I’m not sure that this plan is the best option for putting the student back in student-athlete as some coaches are already pressuring the NCAA to go back on these aggressive academic reforms put in place three years ago.

Over 300 various teams in the NCAA are headed down the wrong path and will face sanctions next year if they don’t change their ways.

Tags: Men's Basketball by Matt Barker, Publisher & Editor of BuckeyeBanter.com
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As the shot clock was winding down, Turner drove the baseline and made a tough leaner through the Boilermaker defense to give Ohio State a 76-72 lead with 26 seconds remaining.

Just five seconds later, Robbie Hummel drilled a three-pointer from the wing to trim Ohio State’s lead down to a single point, but Butler and Turner combined to go 4-for-4 from the free throw line to seal up the victory.

It was a tightly contested game throughout with no team holding more than a six point lead.

Ohio State scored the game’s first five points and held the lead early until Tarrance Crump converted a pair of free throws to put Purdue ahead 13-12 with 13:03 left in the opening period.

The Boilermakers headed into the locker room with a 29-26 advantage when Scott Martin drained a three from along the baseline and was fouled for a four-point play with 1.7 seconds left.

The start of the second half was delayed nearly 20 minutes as the shot clocks were not working, but that only gave Butler more time to contemplate his strategy.

In the first half, Butler attempted just one field goal and missed, while scoring two points from the free throw line. In the second half, Butler was 6-for-7 from the field, knocked down five treys, and was a perfect 8 of 8 from the charity stripe.

In the first half, they denied me as soon as I got rid of the ball,” Butler said. “We made an adjustment at halftime, and in the second half, everything felt good. At practice the other day, I got in the gym until I made 9 of 10 (3-pointers). It paid off.”

Several times here on this blog I have criticized Ohio State’s offense (or lack thereof) because it seemed the Buckeyes were never attacking the basket. Most of the movement was between the midcourt line and the foul line extended as players weaved around ball screens at the top of the key. Finally, OSU started breaking down the defense with dribble penetration and it worked quite well against Purdue.

It definitely was a lack of being able to stop their dribble penetration,” Purdue guard Keaton Grant said to Jeff Washburn of the Lafayette Courier Journal. “When Butler wasn’t scoring, he was penetrating, dishing and creating opportunities for other people.”

Purdue led 62-58 after Martin connected from downtown with 3:13 remaining in regulation, but Ohio State reeled off the next six points as Turner drove to the bucket for a layup, Terwilliger drained a 15-foot jumper from the baseline, and Butler sank two free throws with 49.5 seconds left to play to give the Buckeyes a 64-62 advantage.

Ohio State’s defense also stepped up as Hunter drew a charging foul on Marcus Green, forced a shot clock violation, and a turnover when Martin stepped on the out of bounds line under the basket with 1:02 left in regulation.

Purdue’s E’Twaun Moore forced overtime by hitting two free throws with 32.2 seconds remaining.

The Buckeyes had one last chance to avoid overtime and worked for a last shot, but Turner drove into the lane was triple-teamed before turning the ball over.

Ohio State was 25-for-52 from the field (48.1%) while holding Purdue to 40.7 perecent from the floor (24-for-59).

Up next, Ohio State hosts Michigan State, Sunday afternoon. Tip-off at Value City Arena is scheduled for 12:00 noon ET, and it will be televised on the Big Ten Network.

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Freshman swingman Robbie Hummel averages 11.7 points per game.
(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Ohio State (17-12, 8-8) vs. Purdue (23-6, 14-2)
Date: Tuesday, March 4
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Place: Value City Arena – capacity 19,049
TV: ESPN, with Brent Musburger, Steve Lavin, and Erin Andrews.
Radio: WBNS-AM 1460 and WBNS-FM 97.1 in Columbus and 57 stations across Buckeyeland with Paul Keels and Ron Stokes.
Series History: Ohio State has an all-time record of 73-78 vs. Purdue, but the Buckeyes are 48-27 in games played in Columbus.
Last Meeting : Jan. 12, 2008. Purdue won 75-68 in West Lafayette.  Ohio State led 36-39 at halftime, only to be outscored 46-32 in the second half. Jamar Butler scored 26 points to lead the Buckeyes and Kosta Koufos added 12 as the only players to score in double figures.

I tend to believe that Ohio State’s hopes of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament were dashed with their loss to Minnesota on Saturday.  It’s still possible that the Buckeyes could get in without winning the Big Ten tournament, but they will have to win tonight and against Michigan State on Sunday, while advancing to the championship game. All of which seems unlikely at this point.

This stems from the fact that Ohio State has lost four straight games, five out of the last six, and the Buckeyes sport a record of 4-6 in their last 10 games.

If Ohio State wins out and advances to the Big Ten tournament finals, the Buckeyes would then have a 5-5 record on the last 10 games, which I’m not sure that’s good enough to be selected to the NCAA tournament. But it’s a slight possibility.

The problem for Ohio State all season is lack of depth, and it appears that the Buckeyes are spent both physically and emotionally. I don’t think they have enough left in the tank to pull out a string of wins that will help them to go dancing later this month.

Meanwhile, Purdue is playing for the Big Ten regular season title. The Boilermakers are currently tied for first with Wisconsin at 14-2 in league play, with both teams having two games left.

E’Twaun Moore, a 6-foot-3 freshman guard, leads the Boilermakers in scoring, averaging 12.1 points per game. Two other starters average in double figures, 6-foot-8 swingman Robbie Hummel (11.7 ppg), and 6-foot-4 sophomore guard Keaton Grant (10.7 ppg).

Hummel also leads Purdue in rebounding, averaging 5.9 caroms per contest, and in three point shooting (46.7 percent).

Rounding out the starting five: 6-foot-9 junior forward Nemanja Calasan (6.7 ppg) and 6-foot-3 sophomore guard Chris Kramer (6.8 ppg).

Off the bench, 6-foot-8 freshman forward Scott Martin averages 8.7 points per game.

One note, Purdue hasn’t won in Columbus since earning a 107-75 victory on Feb. 7, 1998, at St. John Arena. The Boilermakers are 0-7 in games played at Value City Arena.

Other Notes: The Buckeyes are 10th in the league (conference games only) in three-point shooting, hitting 31.3 percent.

However, Ohio State leads the Big Ten in field goal percentage defense (38.5 percent) and three-point field goal percentage defense (30.6).

Matty’s B’s Keys to the Game:

Ohio State must play a complete, 40-minute game. Need to start strong and finish strong.

Defend the perimeter.

Limit the offensive rebounds by the Boilers.

No more “freshman” mistakes.

Tags: Men's Basketball by Matt Barker, Publisher & Editor of BuckeyeBanter.com
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In the television game show, Wheel of Fortune, you can’t buy a “W” because it’s a consonant.  

One constant in Ohio State’s four-game losing streak is that the Buckeyes can’t shoot, rebound, or play defense.  Or is that the case?

I scanned through the statistics for each of the last four games, and I didn’t find anything real definitive in those numbers to corroborate my theory.

In the last four games, Ohio State has attempted and made more two-point field goals (76-for-153, .497) than their opponent (63-for-129, .488). The Buckeyes have also shot better from the field overall than their opposition, though it’s just a three-tenths of a percentage point disparity. During the four-game skid, Ohio State is 99-for-232 (42.7%) from the field while Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana and Minnesota have combined to shoot 92-for-217 (42.4%) from the floor.

All four teams have fared better from beyond the arc, though, as they are a combined 29-for-88 (33.0%) from three-point range, while Ohio State is just 23-for-81 (28.4%) in the last four contests.

For the season, Ohio State is now 196-for-582 from downtown for 33.7 percent, second-worst in the Big Ten and slightly better than Michigan’s 31.6 percent.

One troubling stat that has plagued Ohio State all season is getting to the free throw line. In the last four games, the Buckeyes have been outscored 68-28 from the charity stripe. The average margin of defeat during the losing skid, eight.

One could argue that since Ohio State lost those four games that obviously their opponent is going to get to the foul line more, especially during the final minutes. And yes, Ohio State has played three of those four games on the road, which could also inflate those numbers. But here’s another stat for you, Ohio State has only attempted 425 foul shots in 29 games for the entire season. That’s the second-lowest total among all Big Ten teams. Northwestern, who implements the Princeton offense, has only went to the line 324 times.

Yes, Ohio State has also been outrebounded 129-121 and has committed five more turnovers than their opponents in the last four games, but those are by slim margins.

The bottom line is this, the Buckeyes are not attacking the basket and are settling for jumpers. The offense has become stagnant. There’s too much movement in the backcourt, the area between the mid-court line and the foul line extended. Another problem is that players seemed to get bunched up, and there’s not enough spacing, which is easily defended. I have never been a big fan of the motion offense, which is based more on set principles as opposed to specific movements.

Another problem is that Ohio State’s opposition has figured out the Buckeyes’ zone defense, even though it might take the first 20 minutes of the game to do so. In three of the last four games, Ohio State was either tied or trailed by just a point heading into the locker room at intermission, which was the case against Minnesota on Saturday.

Never team played particularly well in the first half, as the Golden Gophers held a 24-23 advantage at the break. Ohio State was 9-for-24 (37.5%) from the field, while Minnesota was 7-for-23 (30.4%).

What the Buckeyes were able to do in the first half was force 11 turnovers, thanks to a three-quarters court press. Minnesota adjusted to the press and committed just three TOs during the final 20 minutes.

There were five ties and eight lead changes in the first 20 minutes of action, but there was none of that in the second half as the Gophers never trailed.

After OSU’s David Lighty made a pair of free throws with 18:45 left to tie the game at 26-all, Minnesota went on a 10-2 run as Lawrence McKenzie drained two triples during that span.

The Gophers’ up their lead to 49-37 after a three-pointer by guard Lawrence Westbrook with 10:56 remaining that prompted a timeout by Ohio State head coach Thad Matta.

Minnesota took their largest lead of the game after McKenzie was fouled by OSU’s Jon Diebler while attempting a trey, and later connected on a jumper with 7:24 left to put the Gophers up 56-42.

Ohio State went on a 8-2 run from that point to trim Minnesota’s lead down to single digits after a conventional three-point play by Kosta Koufos with 4:36 to go, but the Gophers converted all seven of their foul shots down the stretch to keep the Buckeyes at arm’s length.

McKenzie scored all 20 of his points in the second half to lead Minnesota, while Westbrook chipped 10 of his 16 in the final period. Where was the defense!!!???

Ohio State was led by Koufos, who scored 17 points but had just four rebounds.

Up next, the Buckeyes host Purdue, Tuesday night. Tip-off at Value City Arena is scheduled for 7:00 p.m., and it will be televised on ESPN.            

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